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Tenerife II vs Ibarra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Tenerife II
Tenerife II
CANC
00:00
Ibarra
Ibarra
3/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 31Ciudad Deportiva de Geneto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Tenerife II61%
×Draw22%
Ibarra17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tenerife II
1.91
Ibarra
0.88

Tenerife II creates 117% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 77 away

creates per match

Tenerife II
1.83
Ibarra
0.88

allows per match

Tenerife II
0.88
Ibarra
1.99

finishing

Tenerife II+0.00on par
Ibarra+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenerife II ↓

Ibarra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tenerife II or draw
83%
Tenerife II or Ibarra
78%
Draw or Ibarra
39%

Winning margin

Tenerife II wins by 2+
37%
Ibarra wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tenerife II 1+ goals
85%
Tenerife II 2+ goals
57%
Tenerife II 3+ goals
30%
Ibarra 1+ goals
59%
Ibarra 2+ goals
22%
Ibarra 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tenerife II (draw refunded)
79%
Ibarra (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tenerife II at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.88 · 75 matches

Ibarra away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.99 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tenerife II attack 1.83 + Ibarra defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.91

Ibarra attack 0.88 + Tenerife II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Tenerife II scores more
61%
level
22%
Ibarra scores more
17%

Tenerife II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Tenerife II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tenerife II face Ibarra (Tercera División RFEF - Group 12)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 returns with Tenerife II hosting Ibarra. Match starts March 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Tenerife II host Ibarra at Ciudad Deportiva de Geneto.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.