Ibarra 1–2 Tenerife II: Result & Stats

Ibarra

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Tenerife II

9/29/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 4Estadio Villa Isabel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Ibarra32%

×Draw27%

Tenerife II40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IbarraExpected goals in this matchTenerife II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.30

Ibarra

1.13

Tenerife II

1.30

Tenerife II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 74 away

1.18

creates per match

1.46

1.14

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Ibarra

1.18

Tenerife II

1.46

allows per match

Ibarra

1.14

Tenerife II

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibarra+0.00on par

Tenerife II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibarra ↓

Tenerife II →

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ibarra or draw

60%

Ibarra or Tenerife II

73%

Draw or Tenerife II

68%

Winning margin

Ibarra wins by 2+

13%

Tenerife II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Ibarra 1+ goals

68%

Ibarra 2+ goals

31%

Ibarra 3+ goals

11%

Tenerife II 1+ goals

73%

Tenerife II 2+ goals

37%

Tenerife II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ibarra (draw refunded)

44%

Tenerife II (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ibarra at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 77 matches

Tenerife II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ibarra attack 1.18 + Tenerife II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Tenerife II attack 1.46 + Ibarra defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ibarra scores more

32%

level

27%

Tenerife II scores more

40%

Tenerife II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tenerife II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff