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Tenerife II vs Atlético Victoria — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Tenerife II
Tenerife II
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Atlético Victoria
Atlético Victoria
4/25/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 22Ciudad Deportiva de Geneto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Tenerife II63%
×Draw22%
Atlético Victoria15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tenerife II
1.90
Atlético Victoria
0.81

Tenerife II creates 135% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 31 away

creates per match

Tenerife II
1.83
Atlético Victoria
0.74

allows per match

Tenerife II
0.88
Atlético Victoria
1.97

finishing

Tenerife II+0.00on par
Atlético Victoria+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenerife II ↓

Atlético Victoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tenerife II or draw
85%
Tenerife II or Atlético Victoria
78%
Draw or Atlético Victoria
37%

Winning margin

Tenerife II wins by 2+
38%
Atlético Victoria wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tenerife II 1+ goals
85%
Tenerife II 2+ goals
56%
Tenerife II 3+ goals
29%
Atlético Victoria 1+ goals
56%
Atlético Victoria 2+ goals
19%
Atlético Victoria 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tenerife II (draw refunded)
80%
Atlético Victoria (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tenerife II at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.88 · 75 matches

Atlético Victoria away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.97 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tenerife II attack 1.83 + Atlético Victoria defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.90

Atlético Victoria attack 0.74 + Tenerife II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Tenerife II scores more
63%
level
22%
Atlético Victoria scores more
15%

Tenerife II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Tenerife II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tenerife II 4 – 2 Atlético Victoria

Tenerife II beat Atlético Victoria 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 25, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Geneto in Tenerife.