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Tenerife C vs Las Palmas III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Tenerife C
Tenerife C
FT
4 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Las Palmas III
Las Palmas III
10/11/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tenerife C42%
×Draw27%
Las Palmas III31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tenerife C
1.36
Las Palmas III
1.11

Tenerife C creates 23% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 59 away

creates per match

Tenerife C
1.41
Las Palmas III
1.05

allows per match

Tenerife C
1.18
Las Palmas III
1.32

finishing

Tenerife C+0.00on par
Las Palmas III+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenerife C ↓

Las Palmas III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tenerife C or draw
69%
Tenerife C or Las Palmas III
73%
Draw or Las Palmas III
58%

Winning margin

Tenerife C wins by 2+
20%
Las Palmas III wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tenerife C 1+ goals
74%
Tenerife C 2+ goals
39%
Tenerife C 3+ goals
16%
Las Palmas III 1+ goals
67%
Las Palmas III 2+ goals
30%
Las Palmas III 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tenerife C (draw refunded)
58%
Las Palmas III (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tenerife C at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Las Palmas III away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.32 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tenerife C attack 1.41 + Las Palmas III defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.36

Las Palmas III attack 1.05 + Tenerife C defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tenerife C scores more
42%
level
27%
Las Palmas III scores more
31%

Tenerife C at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tenerife C will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tenerife C 4 – 4 Las Palmas III

Tenerife C and Las Palmas III drew 4-4 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on October 11, 2025.