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Tenax vs Harare City — Premier Soccer League 2026

Tenax
Tenax
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Harare City
Harare City
9/24/2022Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 28Sakubva Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tenax30%
×Draw30%
Harare City39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tenax
0.92
Harare City
1.10

Harare City creates 20% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Tenax
0.65
Harare City
0.79

allows per match

Tenax
1.41
Harare City
1.18

finishing

Tenax+0.00on par
Harare City+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenax ↓

Harare City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tenax or draw
61%
Tenax or Harare City
70%
Draw or Harare City
70%

Winning margin

Tenax wins by 2+
11%
Harare City wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Tenax 1+ goals
60%
Tenax 2+ goals
23%
Tenax 3+ goals
7%
Harare City 1+ goals
67%
Harare City 2+ goals
30%
Harare City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tenax (draw refunded)
43%
Harare City (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tenax at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Harare City away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.18 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tenax attack 0.65 + Harare City defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.92

Harare City attack 0.79 + Tenax defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tenax scores more
30%
level
30%
Harare City scores more
39%

Harare City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Harare City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tenax vs Harare City

Tenax beat Harare City 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Sakubva Stadium in Mutare.