Tenax 2–1 CAPS United: Result & Stats

Tenax

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

CAPS United

4/3/2022

Premier Soccer League · Round 10Sakubva Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tenax28%

×Draw29%

CAPS United43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TenaxExpected goals in this matchCAPS United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.21

Tenax

0.91

CAPS United

1.21

CAPS United creates 33% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 96 away

0.65

creates per match

1.02

1.41

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Tenax

0.65

CAPS United

1.02

allows per match

Tenax

1.41

CAPS United

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tenax+0.00on par

CAPS United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenax ↓

CAPS United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–115%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Tenax or draw

57%

Tenax or CAPS United

71%

Draw or CAPS United

72%

Winning margin

Tenax wins by 2+

10%

CAPS United wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Tenax 1+ goals

60%

Tenax 2+ goals

23%

Tenax 3+ goals

6%

CAPS United 1+ goals

70%

CAPS United 2+ goals

34%

CAPS United 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tenax (draw refunded)

39%

CAPS United (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tenax at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

CAPS United away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.16 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tenax attack 0.65 + CAPS United defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.91

CAPS United attack 1.02 + Tenax defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tenax scores more

28%

level

29%

CAPS United scores more

43%

CAPS United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CAPS United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff