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Tenax vs Bulawayo City — Premier Soccer League 2026

Tenax
Tenax
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bulawayo City
Bulawayo City
2/20/2022Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 4Sakubva Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tenax33%
×Draw33%
Bulawayo City34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tenax
0.89
Bulawayo City
0.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 16 away

creates per match

Tenax
0.65
Bulawayo City
0.38

allows per match

Tenax
1.41
Bulawayo City
1.13

finishing

Tenax+0.00on par
Bulawayo City+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenax ↓

Bulawayo City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Tenax or draw
66%
Tenax or Bulawayo City
67%
Draw or Bulawayo City
67%

Winning margin

Tenax wins by 2+
12%
Bulawayo City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tenax 1+ goals
59%
Tenax 2+ goals
22%
Tenax 3+ goals
6%
Bulawayo City 1+ goals
59%
Bulawayo City 2+ goals
23%
Bulawayo City 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tenax (draw refunded)
50%
Bulawayo City (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tenax at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Bulawayo City away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tenax attack 0.65 + Bulawayo City defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.89

Bulawayo City attack 0.38 + Tenax defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Tenax scores more
33%
level
33%
Bulawayo City scores more
34%

Bulawayo City at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Bulawayo City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Tenax 2–0 Bulawayo City

Tenax beat Bulawayo City 2-0 in Premier Soccer League on February 20, 2022.

The match was played at Sakubva Stadium in Mutare.