Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

TEMPO Partizánske vs Nové Zámky — 3. liga - West 2020

TEMPO Partizánske
TEMPO Partizánske
FT
0 – 3
Nové Zámky
Nové Zámky
10/2/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 9Štadión Karola Jokla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

TEMPO Partizánske44%
×Draw24%
Nové Zámky33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TEMPO Partizánske
1.68
Nové Zámky
1.43

TEMPO Partizánske creates 17% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 70 away

creates per match

TEMPO Partizánske
1.06
Nové Zámky
0.80

allows per match

TEMPO Partizánske
2.06
Nové Zámky
2.30

finishing

TEMPO Partizánske+0.00on par
Nové Zámky+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TEMPO Partizánske ↓

Nové Zámky →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

TEMPO Partizánske or draw
67%
TEMPO Partizánske or Nové Zámky
76%
Draw or Nové Zámky
56%

Winning margin

TEMPO Partizánske wins by 2+
23%
Nové Zámky wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

TEMPO Partizánske 1+ goals
81%
TEMPO Partizánske 2+ goals
50%
TEMPO Partizánske 3+ goals
24%
Nové Zámky 1+ goals
76%
Nové Zámky 2+ goals
42%
Nové Zámky 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

TEMPO Partizánske (draw refunded)
57%
Nové Zámky (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TEMPO Partizánske at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

Nové Zámky away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.30 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TEMPO Partizánske attack 1.06 + Nové Zámky defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.68

Nové Zámky attack 0.80 + TEMPO Partizánske defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

TEMPO Partizánske scores more
44%
level
24%
Nové Zámky scores more
33%

TEMPO Partizánske at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "TEMPO Partizánske will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TEMPO Partizánske vs Nové Zámky

Nové Zámky beat TEMPO Partizánske 3-0 in 3. liga - West on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión Karola Jokla in Partizánske.