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TEMPO Partizánske vs Marcelová — 3. liga - West 2020

TEMPO Partizánske
TEMPO Partizánske
FT
1 – 3
Marcelová
Marcelová
5/14/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 27Štadión Karola Jokla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

TEMPO Partizánske36%
×Draw23%
Marcelová41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TEMPO Partizánske
1.55
Marcelová
1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 24 away

creates per match

TEMPO Partizánske
1.06
Marcelová
1.29

allows per match

TEMPO Partizánske
2.06
Marcelová
2.04

finishing

TEMPO Partizánske+0.00on par
Marcelová+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TEMPO Partizánske ↓

Marcelová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

TEMPO Partizánske or draw
59%
TEMPO Partizánske or Marcelová
77%
Draw or Marcelová
64%

Winning margin

TEMPO Partizánske wins by 2+
17%
Marcelová wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

TEMPO Partizánske 1+ goals
79%
TEMPO Partizánske 2+ goals
46%
TEMPO Partizánske 3+ goals
20%
Marcelová 1+ goals
81%
Marcelová 2+ goals
50%
Marcelová 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

TEMPO Partizánske (draw refunded)
46%
Marcelová (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TEMPO Partizánske at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

Marcelová away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TEMPO Partizánske attack 1.06 + Marcelová defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.55

Marcelová attack 1.29 + TEMPO Partizánske defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

TEMPO Partizánske scores more
36%
level
23%
Marcelová scores more
41%

Marcelová at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Marcelová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TEMPO Partizánske vs Marcelová

Marcelová beat TEMPO Partizánske 3-1 in 3. liga - West on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión Karola Jokla in Partizánske.