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TEMPO Partizánske vs Malženice — 3. liga - West 2020

TEMPO Partizánske
TEMPO Partizánske
FT
2 – 1
Malženice
Malženice
4/16/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 23Štadión Karola Jokla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

TEMPO Partizánske23%
×Draw23%
Malženice55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TEMPO Partizánske
1.14
Malženice
1.88

Malženice creates 65% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 39 away

creates per match

TEMPO Partizánske
1.06
Malženice
1.69

allows per match

TEMPO Partizánske
2.06
Malženice
1.21

finishing

TEMPO Partizánske+0.00on par
Malženice+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TEMPO Partizánske ↓

Malženice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

TEMPO Partizánske or draw
45%
TEMPO Partizánske or Malženice
77%
Draw or Malženice
77%

Winning margin

TEMPO Partizánske wins by 2+
9%
Malženice wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

TEMPO Partizánske 1+ goals
68%
TEMPO Partizánske 2+ goals
32%
TEMPO Partizánske 3+ goals
11%
Malženice 1+ goals
85%
Malženice 2+ goals
56%
Malženice 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

TEMPO Partizánske (draw refunded)
30%
Malženice (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TEMPO Partizánske at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

Malženice away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.21 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TEMPO Partizánske attack 1.06 + Malženice defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

Malženice attack 1.69 + TEMPO Partizánske defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

TEMPO Partizánske scores more
23%
level
23%
Malženice scores more
55%

Malženice at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Malženice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TEMPO Partizánske vs Malženice

TEMPO Partizánske beat Malženice 2-1 in 3. liga - West on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión Karola Jokla in Partizánske.