TEMPO Partizánske 2–3 Kalná nad Hronom

TEMPO Partizánske

FT

2 – 3

Kalná nad Hronom

4/2/2022

3. liga - West · West - 21Štadión Karola Jokla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

TEMPO Partizánske32%

×Draw25%

Kalná nad Hronom43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TEMPO PartizánskeExpected goals in this matchKalná nad Hronom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.58

TEMPO Partizánske

1.33

Kalná nad Hronom

1.58

Kalná nad Hronom creates 19% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 31 away

1.06

creates per match

1.10

2.06

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

TEMPO Partizánske

1.06

Kalná nad Hronom

1.10

allows per match

TEMPO Partizánske

2.06

Kalná nad Hronom

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TEMPO Partizánske+0.00on par

Kalná nad Hronom+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TEMPO Partizánske ↓

Kalná nad Hronom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

TEMPO Partizánske or draw

57%

TEMPO Partizánske or Kalná nad Hronom

75%

Draw or Kalná nad Hronom

68%

Winning margin

TEMPO Partizánske wins by 2+

14%

Kalná nad Hronom wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

TEMPO Partizánske 1+ goals

74%

TEMPO Partizánske 2+ goals

38%

TEMPO Partizánske 3+ goals

15%

Kalná nad Hronom 1+ goals

79%

Kalná nad Hronom 2+ goals

47%

Kalná nad Hronom 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

TEMPO Partizánske (draw refunded)

43%

Kalná nad Hronom (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TEMPO Partizánske at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

Kalná nad Hronom away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TEMPO Partizánske attack 1.06 + Kalná nad Hronom defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.33

Kalná nad Hronom attack 1.10 + TEMPO Partizánske defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

TEMPO Partizánske scores more

32%

level

25%

Kalná nad Hronom scores more

43%

Kalná nad Hronom at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kalná nad Hronom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff