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Temperley vs Deportivo Maipu — Primera Nacional 2026

Temperley
Temperley
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo Maipu
Deportivo Maipu
7/31/2021Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 19Estadio Alfredo Martín Beranger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Temperley42%
×Draw30%
Deportivo Maipu28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Temperley
1.15
Deportivo Maipu
0.89

Temperley creates 29% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 100 away

creates per match

Temperley
1.12
Deportivo Maipu
0.94

allows per match

Temperley
0.84
Deportivo Maipu
1.18

finishing

Temperley+0.00on par
Deportivo Maipu+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Temperley ↓

Deportivo Maipu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Temperley or draw
72%
Temperley or Deportivo Maipu
70%
Draw or Deportivo Maipu
58%

Winning margin

Temperley wins by 2+
18%
Deportivo Maipu wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Temperley 1+ goals
68%
Temperley 2+ goals
32%
Temperley 3+ goals
11%
Deportivo Maipu 1+ goals
59%
Deportivo Maipu 2+ goals
22%
Deportivo Maipu 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Temperley (draw refunded)
60%
Deportivo Maipu (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Temperley at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.84 · 125 matches

Deportivo Maipu away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.18 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Temperley attack 1.12 + Deportivo Maipu defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Deportivo Maipu attack 0.94 + Temperley defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Temperley scores more
42%
level
30%
Deportivo Maipu scores more
28%

Temperley at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Temperley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Temperley 0–2 Deportivo Maipu

Deportivo Maipu beat Temperley 2-0 in Primera Nacional on July 31, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Martín Beranger in Temperley, Provincia de Buenos Aires.