Temperley 1–1 Chaco For Ever: Result & Stats

Temperley

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Chaco For Ever

3/3/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 5Estadio Alfredo Martín Beranger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Temperley46%

×Draw31%

Chaco For Ever22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TemperleyExpected goals in this matchChaco For Ever

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.70

Temperley

1.15

Chaco For Ever

0.70

Temperley creates 64% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 83 away

1.12

creates per match

0.57

0.84

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Temperley

1.12

Chaco For Ever

0.57

allows per match

Temperley

0.84

Chaco For Ever

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Temperley+0.00on par

Chaco For Ever+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Temperley ↓

Chaco For Ever →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Temperley or draw

78%

Temperley or Chaco For Ever

69%

Draw or Chaco For Ever

54%

Winning margin

Temperley wins by 2+

20%

Chaco For Ever wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Temperley 1+ goals

68%

Temperley 2+ goals

32%

Temperley 3+ goals

11%

Chaco For Ever 1+ goals

50%

Chaco For Ever 2+ goals

16%

Chaco For Ever 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Temperley (draw refunded)

67%

Chaco For Ever (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Temperley at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.84 · 125 matches

Chaco For Ever away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.18 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Temperley attack 1.12 + Chaco For Ever defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Chaco For Ever attack 0.57 + Temperley defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Temperley scores more

46%

level

31%

Chaco For Ever scores more

22%

Temperley at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Temperley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff