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Temperley vs Brown DE Adrogue — Primera Nacional 2026

Temperley
Temperley
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Brown DE Adrogue
Brown DE Adrogue
6/29/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 21Estadio Alfredo Martín Beranger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Temperley42%
×Draw31%
Brown DE Adrogue27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Temperley
1.13
Brown DE Adrogue
0.84

Temperley creates 35% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 97 away

creates per match

Temperley
1.12
Brown DE Adrogue
0.85

allows per match

Temperley
0.84
Brown DE Adrogue
1.13

finishing

Temperley+0.00on par
Brown DE Adrogue+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Temperley ↓

Brown DE Adrogue →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Temperley or draw
73%
Temperley or Brown DE Adrogue
69%
Draw or Brown DE Adrogue
58%

Winning margin

Temperley wins by 2+
18%
Brown DE Adrogue wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Temperley 1+ goals
68%
Temperley 2+ goals
31%
Temperley 3+ goals
11%
Brown DE Adrogue 1+ goals
57%
Brown DE Adrogue 2+ goals
21%
Brown DE Adrogue 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Temperley (draw refunded)
61%
Brown DE Adrogue (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Temperley at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.84 · 125 matches

Brown DE Adrogue away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.13 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Temperley attack 1.12 + Brown DE Adrogue defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Brown DE Adrogue attack 0.85 + Temperley defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Temperley scores more
42%
level
31%
Brown DE Adrogue scores more
27%

Temperley at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Temperley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Temperley 1–0 Brown DE Adrogue

Temperley beat Brown DE Adrogue 1-0 in Primera Nacional on June 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Martín Beranger in Temperley, Provincia de Buenos Aires.