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Temperley vs Atletico DE Rafaela — Primera Nacional 2026

Temperley
Temperley
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico DE Rafaela
Atletico DE Rafaela
F. Brandan 90+4'
G. Hauche 53'
7/17/2026Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 21Estadio Alfredo Beranger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Temperley44%
×Draw30%
Atletico DE Rafaela25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Temperley
1.17
Atletico DE Rafaela
0.80

Temperley creates 46% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 110 away

creates per match

Temperley
1.12
Atletico DE Rafaela
0.76

allows per match

Temperley
0.84
Atletico DE Rafaela
1.21

finishing

Temperley+0.00on par
Atletico DE Rafaela+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Temperley ↓

Atletico DE Rafaela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Temperley or draw
75%
Temperley or Atletico DE Rafaela
70%
Draw or Atletico DE Rafaela
56%

Winning margin

Temperley wins by 2+
19%
Atletico DE Rafaela wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Temperley 1+ goals
69%
Temperley 2+ goals
33%
Temperley 3+ goals
11%
Atletico DE Rafaela 1+ goals
55%
Atletico DE Rafaela 2+ goals
19%
Atletico DE Rafaela 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Temperley (draw refunded)
64%
Atletico DE Rafaela (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Temperley at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.84 · 125 matches

Atletico DE Rafaela away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Temperley attack 1.12 + Atletico DE Rafaela defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Atletico DE Rafaela attack 0.76 + Temperley defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Temperley scores more
44%
level
30%
Atletico DE Rafaela scores more
25%

Temperley at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Temperley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
G. Hauche
53'
G. Hauche
58'
M. Moreno
60'
M. Fernandez← M. Quiroga
62'
F. Kruger
70'
L. Flores← A. Gonzalez
70'
F. Jourdan← A. Obando
74'
G. Tomasetti← G. Hauche
74'
F. Brandan← F. Benitez
78'
A. Arregui
78'
A. Melo
78'
N. Ramos
79'
M. Echeverria← A. Melo
79'
L. Richarte← A. Arregui
81'
J. Capurro
84'
M. Calzon← F. Kruger
86'
I. Protti← N. Cainelli
86'
E. Pepino← J. Capurro
89'
E. Mastrolia
90'
U. Yegros
90+4'
F. Brandan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Temperley vs Atletico DE Rafaela

Temperley beat Atletico DE Rafaela 2-0 in Primera Nacional on July 17, 2026.

Goals: G. Hauche (53'), F. Brandan (90+4').

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Beranger in Turdera.