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Temp Barnaul vs Znamya Truda — Cup 2019

Temp Barnaul
Temp Barnaul
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
9/10/2025CupCup · Regions Path - 3rd RoundStadion SDYuShOR im. A. Smertina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Temp Barnaul41%
×Draw28%
Znamya Truda32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Temp Barnaul
1.29
Znamya Truda
1.10

Temp Barnaul creates 17% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Temp Barnaul
1.00
Znamya Truda
0.71

allows per match

Temp Barnaul
1.50
Znamya Truda
1.57

finishing

Temp Barnaul+0.00on par
Znamya Truda+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Temp Barnaul ↓

Znamya Truda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Temp Barnaul or draw
68%
Temp Barnaul or Znamya Truda
72%
Draw or Znamya Truda
59%

Winning margin

Temp Barnaul wins by 2+
18%
Znamya Truda wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Temp Barnaul 1+ goals
72%
Temp Barnaul 2+ goals
37%
Temp Barnaul 3+ goals
14%
Znamya Truda 1+ goals
67%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
30%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Temp Barnaul (draw refunded)
56%
Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Temp Barnaul at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Znamya Truda away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Temp Barnaul attack 1.00 + Znamya Truda defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Znamya Truda attack 0.71 + Temp Barnaul defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Temp Barnaul scores more
41%
level
28%
Znamya Truda scores more
32%

Temp Barnaul at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Temp Barnaul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Temp Barnaul vs Znamya Truda

Znamya Truda beat Temp Barnaul 1-0 in Cup on September 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion SDYuShOR im. A. Smertina in Barnaul.