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Telstar vs Koninklijke HFC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Telstar
Telstar
FT
3 – 1
Koninklijke HFC
Koninklijke HFC
1/6/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Telstar79%
×Draw13%
Koninklijke HFC7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Telstar
2.73
Koninklijke HFC
0.70

Telstar creates 290% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Telstar
1.80
Koninklijke HFC
1.00

allows per match

Telstar
0.40
Koninklijke HFC
3.67

finishing

Telstar+0.00on par
Koninklijke HFC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Telstar ↓

Koninklijke HFC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Telstar or draw
93%
Telstar or Koninklijke HFC
87%
Draw or Koninklijke HFC
21%

Winning margin

Telstar wins by 2+
59%
Koninklijke HFC wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Telstar 1+ goals
93%
Telstar 2+ goals
75%
Telstar 3+ goals
50%
Koninklijke HFC 1+ goals
50%
Koninklijke HFC 2+ goals
16%
Koninklijke HFC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Telstar (draw refunded)
92%
Koninklijke HFC (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Telstar at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Koninklijke HFC away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Telstar attack 1.80 + Koninklijke HFC defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.73

Koninklijke HFC attack 1.00 + Telstar defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Telstar scores more
79%
level
13%
Koninklijke HFC scores more
7%

Telstar at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Telstar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Telstar vs Koninklijke HFC

Telstar beat Koninklijke HFC 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 6, 2024.