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Telstar vs Jong Utrecht — Eerste Divisie 2018

Telstar
Telstar
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Jong Utrecht
Jong Utrecht
3/29/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 32711 Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Telstar50%
×Draw23%
Jong Utrecht27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Telstar
1.84
Jong Utrecht
1.29

Telstar creates 43% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 147 away

creates per match

Telstar
1.52
Jong Utrecht
1.07

allows per match

Telstar
1.50
Jong Utrecht
2.16

finishing

Telstar+0.00on par
Jong Utrecht+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Telstar ↓

Jong Utrecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Telstar or draw
73%
Telstar or Jong Utrecht
77%
Draw or Jong Utrecht
50%

Winning margin

Telstar wins by 2+
28%
Jong Utrecht wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Telstar 1+ goals
84%
Telstar 2+ goals
55%
Telstar 3+ goals
28%
Jong Utrecht 1+ goals
72%
Jong Utrecht 2+ goals
37%
Jong Utrecht 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Telstar (draw refunded)
65%
Jong Utrecht (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Telstar at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.50 · 129 matches

Jong Utrecht away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.16 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Telstar attack 1.52 + Jong Utrecht defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.84

Jong Utrecht attack 1.07 + Telstar defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Telstar scores more
50%
level
23%
Jong Utrecht scores more
27%

Telstar at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Telstar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Telstar vs Jong Utrecht

Telstar beat Jong Utrecht 5-1 in Eerste Divisie on March 29, 2024.

The match was played at 711 Stadion in Velsen-Zuid.