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Telstar vs Jong AZ — Eerste Divisie 2018

Telstar
Telstar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Jong AZ
Jong AZ
1/12/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 21711 Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Telstar46%
×Draw23%
Jong AZ31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Telstar
1.75
Jong AZ
1.39

Telstar creates 26% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 147 away

creates per match

Telstar
1.54
Jong AZ
1.27

allows per match

Telstar
1.51
Jong AZ
1.97

finishing

Telstar+0.00on par
Jong AZ+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Telstar ↓

Jong AZ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Telstar or draw
69%
Telstar or Jong AZ
77%
Draw or Jong AZ
54%

Winning margin

Telstar wins by 2+
25%
Jong AZ wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Telstar 1+ goals
83%
Telstar 2+ goals
52%
Telstar 3+ goals
25%
Jong AZ 1+ goals
75%
Jong AZ 2+ goals
40%
Jong AZ 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Telstar (draw refunded)
60%
Jong AZ (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Telstar at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.51 · 130 matches

Jong AZ away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.97 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Telstar attack 1.54 + Jong AZ defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.75

Jong AZ attack 1.27 + Telstar defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Telstar scores more
46%
level
23%
Jong AZ scores more
31%

Telstar at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Telstar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Telstar 1–1 Jong AZ

Telstar and Jong AZ drew 1-1 in Eerste Divisie on January 12, 2024.

The match was played at 711 Stadion in Velsen-Zuid.