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Telstar vs Jong Ajax — Eerste Divisie 2018

Telstar
Telstar
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Jong Ajax
Jong Ajax
4/7/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 32BUKO Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Telstar44%
×Draw23%
Jong Ajax33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Telstar
1.77
Jong Ajax
1.49

Telstar creates 19% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 148 away

creates per match

Telstar
1.52
Jong Ajax
1.48

allows per match

Telstar
1.50
Jong Ajax
2.03

finishing

Telstar+0.00on par
Jong Ajax+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Telstar ↓

Jong Ajax →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Telstar or draw
67%
Telstar or Jong Ajax
77%
Draw or Jong Ajax
56%

Winning margin

Telstar wins by 2+
24%
Jong Ajax wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Telstar 1+ goals
83%
Telstar 2+ goals
53%
Telstar 3+ goals
26%
Jong Ajax 1+ goals
77%
Jong Ajax 2+ goals
44%
Jong Ajax 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Telstar (draw refunded)
58%
Jong Ajax (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Telstar at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.50 · 129 matches

Jong Ajax away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.03 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Telstar attack 1.52 + Jong Ajax defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.77

Jong Ajax attack 1.48 + Telstar defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Telstar scores more
44%
level
23%
Jong Ajax scores more
33%

Telstar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Telstar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Telstar 2–3 Jong Ajax

Jong Ajax beat Telstar 3-2 in Eerste Divisie on April 7, 2023.

The match was played at BUKO Stadion in Velsen-Zuid.