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Telstar vs FC OSS — Eerste Divisie 2018

Telstar
Telstar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC OSS
FC OSS
10/27/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 12711 Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Telstar46%
×Draw25%
FC OSS29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Telstar
1.59
FC OSS
1.21

Telstar creates 31% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 148 away

creates per match

Telstar
1.54
FC OSS
0.90

allows per match

Telstar
1.51
FC OSS
1.65

finishing

Telstar+0.00on par
FC OSS+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Telstar ↓

FC OSS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Telstar or draw
71%
Telstar or FC OSS
75%
Draw or FC OSS
54%

Winning margin

Telstar wins by 2+
24%
FC OSS wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Telstar 1+ goals
80%
Telstar 2+ goals
47%
Telstar 3+ goals
21%
FC OSS 1+ goals
70%
FC OSS 2+ goals
34%
FC OSS 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Telstar (draw refunded)
61%
FC OSS (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Telstar at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.51 · 130 matches

FC OSS away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.65 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Telstar attack 1.54 + FC OSS defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.59

FC OSS attack 0.90 + Telstar defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Telstar scores more
46%
level
25%
FC OSS scores more
29%

Telstar at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Telstar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Telstar 1 – 0 FC OSS

Telstar beat FC OSS 1-0 in Eerste Divisie on October 27, 2023.

The match was played at 711 Stadion in Velsen-Zuid.