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Telstar vs Dordrecht — Eerste Divisie 2018

Telstar
Telstar
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Dordrecht
Dordrecht
12/15/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 19711 Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Telstar48%
×Draw23%
Dordrecht29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Telstar
1.82
Dordrecht
1.36

Telstar creates 34% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 148 away

creates per match

Telstar
1.54
Dordrecht
1.22

allows per match

Telstar
1.51
Dordrecht
2.11

finishing

Telstar+0.00on par
Dordrecht+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Telstar ↓

Dordrecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Telstar or draw
71%
Telstar or Dordrecht
77%
Draw or Dordrecht
52%

Winning margin

Telstar wins by 2+
26%
Dordrecht wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Telstar 1+ goals
84%
Telstar 2+ goals
54%
Telstar 3+ goals
27%
Dordrecht 1+ goals
74%
Dordrecht 2+ goals
39%
Dordrecht 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Telstar (draw refunded)
63%
Dordrecht (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Telstar at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.51 · 130 matches

Dordrecht away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.11 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Telstar attack 1.54 + Dordrecht defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.82

Dordrecht attack 1.22 + Telstar defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Telstar scores more
48%
level
23%
Dordrecht scores more
29%

Telstar at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Telstar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Telstar vs Dordrecht

Dordrecht beat Telstar 2-0 in Eerste Divisie on December 15, 2023.

The match was played at 711 Stadion in Velsen-Zuid.