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Telstar vs Dordrecht — Eerste Divisie 2018

Telstar
Telstar
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Dordrecht
Dordrecht
G. Plet 12'
T. Overtoom 3'
J. Pinas 37', 1'
10/28/2022Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 13BUKO Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Telstar47%
×Draw23%
Dordrecht30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Telstar
1.79
Dordrecht
1.37

Telstar creates 31% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 150 away

creates per match

Telstar
1.50
Dordrecht
1.22

allows per match

Telstar
1.52
Dordrecht
2.09

finishing

Telstar+0.00on par
Dordrecht+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Telstar ↓

Dordrecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Telstar or draw
70%
Telstar or Dordrecht
77%
Draw or Dordrecht
53%

Winning margin

Telstar wins by 2+
26%
Dordrecht wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Telstar 1+ goals
83%
Telstar 2+ goals
53%
Telstar 3+ goals
26%
Dordrecht 1+ goals
75%
Dordrecht 2+ goals
40%
Dordrecht 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Telstar (draw refunded)
62%
Dordrecht (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Telstar at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.52 · 128 matches

Dordrecht away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.09 · 150 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Telstar attack 1.50 + Dordrecht defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.79

Dordrecht attack 1.22 + Telstar defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Telstar scores more
47%
level
23%
Dordrecht scores more
30%

Telstar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Telstar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
J. PinasDordrechtDordrecht · F
8.3

Match Events

1'
J. Pinas↳ S. Longo
3'
T. Overtoom↳ G. Plet
11'
Elso Brito
12'
G. Plet↳ C. Giousis
37'
J. Pinas↳ A. El Azzouzi
40'
Tom Overtoom
40'
Jaymillio Pinas
46'
Y. Boussakou← G. Plet
61'
B. Reemst← S. Tremour
61'
M. Savastano← J. Pinas
69'
M. Ainsalu← T. Overtoom
69'
Y. Liesdek← A. Bensabouh
79'
P. Doesburg← Elso Brito
79'
J. Wielzen← A. El Azzouzi
89'
J. Kruiver← Y. Liesdek
90+2'
Ronald Koeman Jr

Possession

57%Telstar

Shots

12Telstar

Pass accuracy

51%Telstar

Statistics

TelstarDordrecht
Overview
57%Possession43%
12Total Shots9
5Corners4
12Fouls15
Shots
12Total Shots9
5On Target6
4Off Target1
3Blocked2
10Inside Box8
2Outside Box1
Passing
57%Possession43%
529Total Passes390
454Accurate Passes318
86%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls15
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Telstar vs Dordrecht

Telstar and Dordrecht drew 2-2 in Eerste Divisie on October 28, 2022.

Goals: J. Pinas (1', 37'), T. Overtoom (3'), G. Plet (12').

Telstar controlled possession (57%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at BUKO Stadion in Velsen-Zuid.