Telstar 0–0 Den Bosch: Result & Stats

Telstar

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Den Bosch

9/28/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 8711 Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Telstar47%

×Draw23%

Den Bosch29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TelstarExpected goals in this matchDen Bosch

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.35

Telstar

1.77

Den Bosch

1.35

Telstar creates 31% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 148 away

1.54

creates per match

1.19

1.51

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Telstar

1.54

Den Bosch

1.19

allows per match

Telstar

1.51

Den Bosch

2.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Telstar+0.00on par

Den Bosch+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Telstar ↓

Den Bosch →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Telstar or draw

71%

Telstar or Den Bosch

77%

Draw or Den Bosch

53%

Winning margin

Telstar wins by 2+

26%

Den Bosch wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Telstar 1+ goals

83%

Telstar 2+ goals

53%

Telstar 3+ goals

26%

Den Bosch 1+ goals

74%

Den Bosch 2+ goals

39%

Den Bosch 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Telstar (draw refunded)

62%

Den Bosch (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Telstar at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.51 · 130 matches

Den Bosch away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.01 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Telstar attack 1.54 + Den Bosch defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.77

Den Bosch attack 1.19 + Telstar defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Telstar scores more

47%

level

23%

Den Bosch scores more

29%

Telstar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Telstar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff