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TelOne vs Kwekwe United — Premier Soccer League 2026

TelOne
TelOne
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kwekwe United
Kwekwe United
10/4/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

TelOne66%
×Draw21%
Kwekwe United13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TelOne
1.88
Kwekwe United
0.67

TelOne creates 181% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 17 away

creates per match

TelOne
1.00
Kwekwe United
0.35

allows per match

TelOne
0.98
Kwekwe United
2.76

finishing

TelOne+0.00on par
Kwekwe United+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TelOne ↓

Kwekwe United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

TelOne or draw
87%
TelOne or Kwekwe United
79%
Draw or Kwekwe United
34%

Winning margin

TelOne wins by 2+
40%
Kwekwe United wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

TelOne 1+ goals
85%
TelOne 2+ goals
56%
TelOne 3+ goals
29%
Kwekwe United 1+ goals
49%
Kwekwe United 2+ goals
15%
Kwekwe United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

TelOne (draw refunded)
84%
Kwekwe United (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TelOne at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.98 · 62 matches

Kwekwe United away — creates 0.35, concedes 2.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TelOne attack 1.00 + Kwekwe United defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 1.88

Kwekwe United attack 0.35 + TelOne defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

TelOne scores more
66%
level
21%
Kwekwe United scores more
13%

TelOne at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "TelOne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TelOne vs Kwekwe United

TelOne beat Kwekwe United 3-1 in Premier Soccer League on October 4, 2025.