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TelOne vs Hwange — Premier Soccer League 2026

TelOne
TelOne
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hwange
Hwange
8/4/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 22Bata Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

TelOne45%
×Draw30%
Hwange24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TelOne
1.19
Hwange
0.79

TelOne creates 51% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 52 away

creates per match

TelOne
1.00
Hwange
0.60

allows per match

TelOne
0.98
Hwange
1.37

finishing

TelOne+0.00on par
Hwange+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TelOne ↓

Hwange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

TelOne or draw
76%
TelOne or Hwange
70%
Draw or Hwange
55%

Winning margin

TelOne wins by 2+
20%
Hwange wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

TelOne 1+ goals
70%
TelOne 2+ goals
33%
TelOne 3+ goals
12%
Hwange 1+ goals
55%
Hwange 2+ goals
19%
Hwange 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

TelOne (draw refunded)
65%
Hwange (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TelOne at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.98 · 62 matches

Hwange away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.37 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TelOne attack 1.00 + Hwange defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.19

Hwange attack 0.60 + TelOne defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

TelOne scores more
45%
level
30%
Hwange scores more
24%

TelOne at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "TelOne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TelOne vs Hwange

TelOne and Hwange drew 0-0 in Premier Soccer League on August 4, 2024.

The match was played at Bata Stadium in Gweru.