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TelOne vs Harare City — Premier Soccer League 2026

TelOne
TelOne
FT
1 – 1
Harare City
Harare City
7/7/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 13Luveve Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

TelOne40%
×Draw31%
Harare City29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TelOne
1.09
Harare City
0.89

TelOne creates 22% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 34 away

creates per match

TelOne
1.00
Harare City
0.79

allows per match

TelOne
0.98
Harare City
1.18

finishing

TelOne+0.00on par
Harare City+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TelOne ↓

Harare City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

TelOne or draw
71%
TelOne or Harare City
69%
Draw or Harare City
60%

Winning margin

TelOne wins by 2+
16%
Harare City wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

TelOne 1+ goals
66%
TelOne 2+ goals
30%
TelOne 3+ goals
10%
Harare City 1+ goals
59%
Harare City 2+ goals
22%
Harare City 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

TelOne (draw refunded)
58%
Harare City (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TelOne at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.98 · 62 matches

Harare City away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.18 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TelOne attack 1.00 + Harare City defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Harare City attack 0.79 + TelOne defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

TelOne scores more
40%
level
31%
Harare City scores more
29%

TelOne at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "TelOne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TelOne vs Harare City

TelOne and Harare City drew 1-1 in Premier Soccer League on July 7, 2019.

The match was played at Luveve Stadium in Bulawayo.