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TelOne vs Green Fuel — Premier Soccer League 2026

TelOne
TelOne
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Green Fuel
Green Fuel
7/24/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 20Bata Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

TelOne44%
×Draw31%
Green Fuel25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TelOne
1.12
Green Fuel
0.77

TelOne creates 45% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 51 away

creates per match

TelOne
1.00
Green Fuel
0.55

allows per match

TelOne
0.98
Green Fuel
1.24

finishing

TelOne+0.00on par
Green Fuel+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TelOne ↓

Green Fuel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

TelOne or draw
75%
TelOne or Green Fuel
69%
Draw or Green Fuel
56%

Winning margin

TelOne wins by 2+
18%
Green Fuel wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

TelOne 1+ goals
67%
TelOne 2+ goals
31%
TelOne 3+ goals
10%
Green Fuel 1+ goals
54%
Green Fuel 2+ goals
18%
Green Fuel 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

TelOne (draw refunded)
64%
Green Fuel (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TelOne at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.98 · 62 matches

Green Fuel away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TelOne attack 1.00 + Green Fuel defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.12

Green Fuel attack 0.55 + TelOne defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

TelOne scores more
44%
level
31%
Green Fuel scores more
25%

TelOne at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "TelOne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TelOne vs Green Fuel

Green Fuel beat TelOne 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on July 24, 2024.

The match was played at Bata Stadium in Gweru.