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TelOne vs Black Rhinos — Premier Soccer League 2026

TelOne
TelOne
FT
0 – 2
Black Rhinos
Black Rhinos
6/9/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 11Luveve Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

TelOne39%
×Draw32%
Black Rhinos29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TelOne
1.01
Black Rhinos
0.82

TelOne creates 23% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 51 away

creates per match

TelOne
1.00
Black Rhinos
0.67

allows per match

TelOne
0.98
Black Rhinos
1.02

finishing

TelOne+0.00on par
Black Rhinos+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TelOne ↓

Black Rhinos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

TelOne or draw
71%
TelOne or Black Rhinos
68%
Draw or Black Rhinos
61%

Winning margin

TelOne wins by 2+
15%
Black Rhinos wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

TelOne 1+ goals
64%
TelOne 2+ goals
27%
TelOne 3+ goals
8%
Black Rhinos 1+ goals
56%
Black Rhinos 2+ goals
20%
Black Rhinos 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

TelOne (draw refunded)
58%
Black Rhinos (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TelOne at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.98 · 62 matches

Black Rhinos away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TelOne attack 1.00 + Black Rhinos defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.01

Black Rhinos attack 0.67 + TelOne defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

TelOne scores more
39%
level
32%
Black Rhinos scores more
29%

TelOne at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "TelOne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: TelOne 0–2 Black Rhinos

Black Rhinos beat TelOne 2-0 in Premier Soccer League on June 9, 2019.

The match was played at Luveve Stadium in Bulawayo.