TelOne 1–0 Arenel Movers: Result & Stats

TelOne

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Arenel Movers

11/10/2024

Premier Soccer League · Round 33Ascot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

TelOne50%

×Draw28%

Arenel Movers22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TelOneExpected goals in this matchArenel Movers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.78

TelOne

1.35

Arenel Movers

0.78

TelOne creates 73% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 17 away

1.00

creates per match

0.59

0.98

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

TelOne

1.00

Arenel Movers

0.59

allows per match

TelOne

0.98

Arenel Movers

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TelOne+0.00on par

Arenel Movers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TelOne ↓

Arenel Movers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

TelOne or draw

78%

TelOne or Arenel Movers

72%

Draw or Arenel Movers

50%

Winning margin

TelOne wins by 2+

24%

Arenel Movers wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

TelOne 1+ goals

74%

TelOne 2+ goals

39%

TelOne 3+ goals

15%

Arenel Movers 1+ goals

54%

Arenel Movers 2+ goals

18%

Arenel Movers 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

TelOne (draw refunded)

70%

Arenel Movers (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TelOne at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.98 · 62 matches

Arenel Movers away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TelOne attack 1.00 + Arenel Movers defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.35

Arenel Movers attack 0.59 + TelOne defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

TelOne scores more

50%

level

28%

Arenel Movers scores more

22%

TelOne at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "TelOne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff