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Teleoptik vs RAD — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Teleoptik
Teleoptik
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
RAD
RAD
8/26/2023Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 3Sportski Centar Partizan-Teleoptik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Teleoptik76%
×Draw16%
RAD9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teleoptik
2.48
RAD
0.72

Teleoptik creates 244% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 15 away

creates per match

Teleoptik
2.23
RAD
0.67

allows per match

Teleoptik
0.77
RAD
2.73

finishing

Teleoptik+0.00on par
RAD+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teleoptik ↓

RAD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Teleoptik or draw
91%
Teleoptik or RAD
84%
Draw or RAD
24%

Winning margin

Teleoptik wins by 2+
53%
RAD wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Teleoptik 1+ goals
92%
Teleoptik 2+ goals
70%
Teleoptik 3+ goals
44%
RAD 1+ goals
51%
RAD 2+ goals
16%
RAD 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Teleoptik (draw refunded)
89%
RAD (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teleoptik at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.77 · 99 matches

RAD away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teleoptik attack 2.23 + RAD defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.48

RAD attack 0.67 + Teleoptik defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Teleoptik scores more
76%
level
16%
RAD scores more
9%

Teleoptik at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Teleoptik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Teleoptik 3–2 RAD

Teleoptik beat RAD 3-2 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Sportski Centar Partizan-Teleoptik in Zemun.