Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Teleoptik vs Javor — Prva Liga 2018

Teleoptik
Teleoptik
FT
0 – 4
Javor
Javor
9/8/2018Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 6Sportski Centar Partizan-Teleoptik (Zemun)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Teleoptik27%
×Draw28%
Javor45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teleoptik
0.95
Javor
1.31

Javor creates 38% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 54 away

creates per match

Teleoptik
1.00
Javor
1.30

allows per match

Teleoptik
1.33
Javor
0.89

finishing

Teleoptik+0.00on par
Javor+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teleoptik ↓

Javor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Teleoptik or draw
55%
Teleoptik or Javor
72%
Draw or Javor
73%

Winning margin

Teleoptik wins by 2+
10%
Javor wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Teleoptik 1+ goals
61%
Teleoptik 2+ goals
25%
Teleoptik 3+ goals
7%
Javor 1+ goals
73%
Javor 2+ goals
38%
Javor 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Teleoptik (draw refunded)
38%
Javor (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teleoptik at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Javor away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.89 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teleoptik attack 1.00 + Javor defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95

Javor attack 1.30 + Teleoptik defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Teleoptik scores more
27%
level
28%
Javor scores more
45%

Javor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Javor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Teleoptik vs Javor

Javor beat Teleoptik 4-0 in Prva Liga on September 8, 2018.

The match was played at Sportski Centar Partizan-Teleoptik (Zemun).