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Teleoptik vs Bezanija — Prva Liga 2018

Teleoptik
Teleoptik
FT
0 – 1
Bezanija
Bezanija
8/18/2018Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 2Sportski Centar Partizan-Teleoptik (Zemun)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Teleoptik39%
×Draw27%
Bezanija34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teleoptik
1.29
Bezanija
1.17

Teleoptik creates 10% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

creates per match

Teleoptik
1.00
Bezanija
1.00

allows per match

Teleoptik
1.33
Bezanija
1.58

finishing

Teleoptik+0.00on par
Bezanija+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teleoptik ↓

Bezanija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Teleoptik or draw
66%
Teleoptik or Bezanija
73%
Draw or Bezanija
61%

Winning margin

Teleoptik wins by 2+
18%
Bezanija wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Teleoptik 1+ goals
72%
Teleoptik 2+ goals
37%
Teleoptik 3+ goals
14%
Bezanija 1+ goals
69%
Bezanija 2+ goals
33%
Bezanija 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Teleoptik (draw refunded)
54%
Bezanija (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teleoptik at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Bezanija away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teleoptik attack 1.00 + Bezanija defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Bezanija attack 1.00 + Teleoptik defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Teleoptik scores more
39%
level
27%
Bezanija scores more
34%

Teleoptik at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Teleoptik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Teleoptik 0–1 Bezanija

Bezanija beat Teleoptik 1-0 in Prva Liga on August 18, 2018.

The match was played at Sportski Centar Partizan-Teleoptik (Zemun).