Teleghma 2–3 MO Constantine: Result & Stats

Teleghma

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

MO Constantine

Unknown 73' (pen)

B. El-Din 1'

Unknown 90+4', 64', 37'

5/4/2024

League #187 · East - 25Stade Khabaza Bachir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Teleghma26%

×Draw26%

MO Constantine48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TeleghmaExpected goals in this matchMO Constantine

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.48

Teleghma

1.03

MO Constantine

1.48

MO Constantine creates 44% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

1.50

creates per match

0.71

2.25

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Teleghma

1.50

MO Constantine

0.71

allows per match

Teleghma

2.25

MO Constantine

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Teleghma+0.00on par

MO Constantine+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teleghma ↓

MO Constantine →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Teleghma or draw

52%

Teleghma or MO Constantine

74%

Draw or MO Constantine

74%

Winning margin

Teleghma wins by 2+

10%

MO Constantine wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Teleghma 1+ goals

64%

Teleghma 2+ goals

28%

Teleghma 3+ goals

9%

MO Constantine 1+ goals

77%

MO Constantine 2+ goals

43%

MO Constantine 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Teleghma (draw refunded)

36%

MO Constantine (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teleghma at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

MO Constantine away — creates 0.71, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teleghma attack 1.50 + MO Constantine defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.03

MO Constantine attack 0.71 + Teleghma defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Teleghma scores more

26%

level

26%

MO Constantine scores more

48%

MO Constantine at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "MO Constantine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

B. El-Din

37'

64'

73'

Penalty

90+4'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff