Telde 0–3 Villa Santa Brígida: Result & Stats

Telde

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Villa Santa Brígida

5/8/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 34Estadio Pablo Hernández Morales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Telde36%

×Draw25%

Villa Santa Brígida39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TeldeExpected goals in this matchVilla Santa Brígida

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.45

Telde

1.40

Villa Santa Brígida

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 109 away

1.29

creates per match

0.96

1.94

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Telde

1.29

Villa Santa Brígida

0.96

allows per match

Telde

1.94

Villa Santa Brígida

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Telde+0.00on par

Villa Santa Brígida+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Telde ↓

Villa Santa Brígida →

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Telde or draw

61%

Telde or Villa Santa Brígida

75%

Draw or Villa Santa Brígida

64%

Winning margin

Telde wins by 2+

17%

Villa Santa Brígida wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Telde 1+ goals

75%

Telde 2+ goals

41%

Telde 3+ goals

17%

Villa Santa Brígida 1+ goals

77%

Villa Santa Brígida 2+ goals

42%

Villa Santa Brígida 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Telde (draw refunded)

49%

Villa Santa Brígida (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Telde at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

Villa Santa Brígida away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.51 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Telde attack 1.29 + Villa Santa Brígida defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.40

Villa Santa Brígida attack 0.96 + Telde defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Telde scores more

36%

level

25%

Villa Santa Brígida scores more

39%

Villa Santa Brígida at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Villa Santa Brígida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff