Telde 2–6 Tenerife C: Result & Stats

Telde

2 – 6

HT: 0 – 2

Tenerife C

2/8/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 21Estadio Pablo Hernández Morales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Telde32%

×Draw24%

Tenerife C45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TeldeExpected goals in this matchTenerife C

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.71

Telde

1.41

Tenerife C

1.71

Tenerife C creates 21% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.29

creates per match

1.47

1.94

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Telde

1.29

Tenerife C

1.47

allows per match

Telde

1.94

Tenerife C

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Telde+0.00on par

Tenerife C+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Telde ↓

Tenerife C →

0–04%

0–18%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Telde or draw

55%

Telde or Tenerife C

76%

Draw or Tenerife C

68%

Winning margin

Telde wins by 2+

14%

Tenerife C wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Telde 1+ goals

76%

Telde 2+ goals

41%

Telde 3+ goals

17%

Tenerife C 1+ goals

82%

Tenerife C 2+ goals

51%

Tenerife C 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Telde (draw refunded)

42%

Tenerife C (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Telde at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

Tenerife C away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Telde attack 1.29 + Tenerife C defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.41

Tenerife C attack 1.47 + Telde defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Telde scores more

32%

level

24%

Tenerife C scores more

45%

Tenerife C at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tenerife C will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff