Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Telde vs Real Unión de Tenerife — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Telde
Telde
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Real Unión de Tenerife
Real Unión de Tenerife
D. Molina 88'
D. Soto 55'
11/23/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 12Estadio Pablo Hernández Morales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Telde35%
×Draw27%
Real Unión de Tenerife38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Telde
1.21
Real Unión de Tenerife
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Telde
1.29
Real Unión de Tenerife
0.59

allows per match

Telde
1.94
Real Unión de Tenerife
1.12

finishing

Telde+0.00on par
Real Unión de Tenerife+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Telde ↓

Real Unión de Tenerife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Telde or draw
62%
Telde or Real Unión de Tenerife
73%
Draw or Real Unión de Tenerife
65%

Winning margin

Telde wins by 2+
15%
Real Unión de Tenerife wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Telde 1+ goals
70%
Telde 2+ goals
34%
Telde 3+ goals
12%
Real Unión de Tenerife 1+ goals
72%
Real Unión de Tenerife 2+ goals
36%
Real Unión de Tenerife 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Telde (draw refunded)
48%
Real Unión de Tenerife (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Telde at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

Real Unión de Tenerife away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Telde attack 1.29 + Real Unión de Tenerife defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.21

Real Unión de Tenerife attack 0.59 + Telde defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Telde scores more
35%
level
27%
Real Unión de Tenerife scores more
38%

Real Unión de Tenerife at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Real Unión de Tenerife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'
D. Soto
88'
D. Molina

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Telde 1–1 Real Unión de Tenerife

Telde and Real Unión de Tenerife drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on November 23, 2025.

Goals: D. Soto (55'), D. Molina (88').

The match was played at Estadio Pablo Hernández Morales in Telde (Gran Canaria).