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Telde vs Las Palmas III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Telde
Telde
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Las Palmas III
Las Palmas III
3/15/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 26Estadio Pablo Hernández Morales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Telde33%
×Draw25%
Las Palmas III42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Telde
1.31
Las Palmas III
1.50

Las Palmas III creates 15% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 59 away

creates per match

Telde
1.29
Las Palmas III
1.05

allows per match

Telde
1.94
Las Palmas III
1.32

finishing

Telde+0.00on par
Las Palmas III+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Telde ↓

Las Palmas III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Telde or draw
58%
Telde or Las Palmas III
75%
Draw or Las Palmas III
67%

Winning margin

Telde wins by 2+
14%
Las Palmas III wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Telde 1+ goals
73%
Telde 2+ goals
38%
Telde 3+ goals
14%
Las Palmas III 1+ goals
78%
Las Palmas III 2+ goals
44%
Las Palmas III 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Telde (draw refunded)
44%
Las Palmas III (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Telde at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

Las Palmas III away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.32 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Telde attack 1.29 + Las Palmas III defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Las Palmas III attack 1.05 + Telde defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Telde scores more
33%
level
25%
Las Palmas III scores more
42%

Las Palmas III at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Las Palmas III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Telde 2–4 Las Palmas III

Las Palmas III beat Telde 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 15, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Pablo Hernández Morales in Telde (Gran Canaria).