Telde 1–1 Atlético Paso: Result & Stats

Telde

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Atlético Paso

12/17/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 14Estadio Pablo Hernández Morales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Telde28%

×Draw25%

Atlético Paso46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TeldeExpected goals in this matchAtlético Paso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.53

Telde

1.14

Atlético Paso

1.53

Atlético Paso creates 34% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 59 away

1.29

creates per match

1.12

1.94

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Telde

1.29

Atlético Paso

1.12

allows per match

Telde

1.94

Atlético Paso

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Telde+0.00on par

Atlético Paso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Telde ↓

Atlético Paso →

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Telde or draw

54%

Telde or Atlético Paso

75%

Draw or Atlético Paso

72%

Winning margin

Telde wins by 2+

11%

Atlético Paso wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Telde 1+ goals

68%

Telde 2+ goals

32%

Telde 3+ goals

11%

Atlético Paso 1+ goals

78%

Atlético Paso 2+ goals

45%

Atlético Paso 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Telde (draw refunded)

38%

Atlético Paso (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Telde at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

Atlético Paso away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Telde attack 1.29 + Atlético Paso defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.14

Atlético Paso attack 1.12 + Telde defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Telde scores more

28%

level

25%

Atlético Paso scores more

46%

Atlético Paso at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atlético Paso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff