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Telavi vs Dila — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Telavi
Telavi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dila
Dila
10/28/2024Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 30Kavkasioni Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Telavi32%
×Draw28%
Dila39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Telavi
1.06
Dila
1.21

Dila creates 14% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 125 away

creates per match

Telavi
1.07
Dila
1.31

allows per match

Telavi
1.10
Dila
1.06

finishing

Telavi+0.00on par
Dila+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Telavi ↓

Dila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Telavi or draw
61%
Telavi or Dila
72%
Draw or Dila
68%

Winning margin

Telavi wins by 2+
12%
Dila wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Telavi 1+ goals
65%
Telavi 2+ goals
29%
Telavi 3+ goals
9%
Dila 1+ goals
70%
Dila 2+ goals
34%
Dila 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Telavi (draw refunded)
45%
Dila (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Telavi at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.10 · 102 matches

Dila away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Telavi attack 1.07 + Dila defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Dila attack 1.31 + Telavi defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Telavi scores more
32%
level
28%
Dila scores more
39%

Dila at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Telavi vs Dila

Telavi beat Dila 1-0 in Erovnuli Liga on October 28, 2024.

The match was played at Kavkasioni Arena in Telavi.