Tekstilshchik 1–2 Urozhay: Result & Stats

Tekstilshchik

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Urozhay

A. Skvortsov 81' (pen)

I. Temnikov 66'

A. Sharipov 47'

10/6/2024

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 12Stadion Tekstilshchik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Tekstilshchik45%

×Draw27%

Urozhay28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TekstilshchikExpected goals in this matchUrozhay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.02

Tekstilshchik

1.37

Urozhay

1.02

Tekstilshchik creates 34% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 9 away

1.41

creates per match

1.00

1.04

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Tekstilshchik

1.41

Urozhay

1.00

allows per match

Tekstilshchik

1.04

Urozhay

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par

Urozhay+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilshchik ↓

Urozhay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tekstilshchik or draw

72%

Tekstilshchik or Urozhay

73%

Draw or Urozhay

55%

Winning margin

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+

21%

Urozhay wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals

75%

Tekstilshchik 2+ goals

40%

Tekstilshchik 3+ goals

16%

Urozhay 1+ goals

64%

Urozhay 2+ goals

27%

Urozhay 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)

62%

Urozhay (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilshchik at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

Urozhay away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilshchik attack 1.41 + Urozhay defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.37

Urozhay attack 1.00 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tekstilshchik scores more

45%

level

27%

Urozhay scores more

28%

Tekstilshchik at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tekstilshchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

31'

31'

47'

58'

66'

77'

A. Samsonov← O. Kalugin

77'

N. Kozlovskiy← V. Azarov

77'

I. Zhilov← I. Temnikov

77'

N. Bakalyuk← G. Makhatadze

81'

A. SkvortsovPenalty

85'

N. Chistyakov← M. Polyakov

89'

A. Bayryev← I. Bezdenezhnykh

90'

E. Steshin

Tekstilshchik

Urozhay

1

Nesterenk

11

⚽

▼

19

96

37

7

⚽

Sharipov

87

▼

Bezdenezh

8

▼

9

18

90

51

76

33

▼

Polyakov

91

Kalin

4

Eliseev

9

▼

Azarov

94

Evseev

23

▼

Kalugin

19

Noskov

92

⚽

Skvortsov

7

Selemenev

Manager: D. Kirichenko

77'▲A. Samsonov←▼O. Kalugin

77'▲N. Kozlovskiy←▼V. Azarov

85'▲N. Chistyakov←▼M. Polyakov

Tekstilshchik substitutes

8Samsonov17Kozlovskiy12Chistyakov3Detenyshev10Volodkin11Razborov30Ramazanov56Ivakhnov71Matsigura93Solovyev98Fenin

Manager: V. Molchanov

77'▲I. Zhilov←▼I. Temnikov

77'▲N. Bakalyuk←▼G. Makhatadze

89'▲A. Bayryev←▼I. Bezdenezhnykh

Urozhay substitutes

6Zhilov22Bakalyuk28Bayryev21Shalimov23Suvorov24Ternovskiy78Kravchuk

Second League A - Fall Season Gold: Tekstilshchik 1–2 Urozhay

Urozhay beat Tekstilshchik 2-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on October 6, 2024.

Goals: A. Sharipov (47'), I. Temnikov (66'), A. Skvortsov (81' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Tekstilshchik in Ivanovo.

Tekstilshchik vs Urozhay — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League A - Fall Season Gold: Tekstilshchik 1–2 Urozhay