Tekstilshchik 0–0 Torpedo Moskva II: Result & Stats

Tekstilshchik

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Torpedo Moskva II

10/24/2022

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 18Stadion Tekstilshchik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tekstilshchik59%

×Draw23%

Torpedo Moskva II18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TekstilshchikExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Moskva II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.88

Tekstilshchik

1.82

Torpedo Moskva II

0.88

Tekstilshchik creates 107% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 24 away

2.31

creates per match

1.13

0.63

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Tekstilshchik

2.31

Torpedo Moskva II

1.13

allows per match

Tekstilshchik

0.63

Torpedo Moskva II

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par

Torpedo Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilshchik ↓

Torpedo Moskva II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Tekstilshchik or draw

82%

Tekstilshchik or Torpedo Moskva II

77%

Draw or Torpedo Moskva II

41%

Winning margin

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+

34%

Torpedo Moskva II wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals

84%

Tekstilshchik 2+ goals

54%

Tekstilshchik 3+ goals

27%

Torpedo Moskva II 1+ goals

59%

Torpedo Moskva II 2+ goals

22%

Torpedo Moskva II 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)

77%

Torpedo Moskva II (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilshchik at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

Torpedo Moskva II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilshchik attack 2.31 + Torpedo Moskva II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.82

Torpedo Moskva II attack 1.13 + Tekstilshchik defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Tekstilshchik scores more

59%

level

23%

Torpedo Moskva II scores more

18%

Tekstilshchik at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Tekstilshchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff