Tekstilshchik vs Torpedo Moskva

Tekstilshchik

Preview

15:00

Torpedo Moskva

9/5/2026

First League · Round 10Stadion Tekstilshchik

Big match

40%

Tekstilshchik

model favours

40%31%29%

Torpedo Moskva have won 6 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

68%

under 2.5 goals

39%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tekstilshchik40%

×Draw31%

Torpedo Moskva29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TekstilshchikExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Moskva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.89

Tekstilshchik

1.09

Torpedo Moskva

0.89

Tekstilshchik creates 22% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 35 away

1.25

creates per match

1.03

0.75

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Tekstilshchik

1.25

Torpedo Moskva

1.03

allows per match

Tekstilshchik

0.75

Torpedo Moskva

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilshchik ↓

Torpedo Moskva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Tekstilshchik or draw

71%

Tekstilshchik or Torpedo Moskva

69%

Draw or Torpedo Moskva

60%

Winning margin

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+

16%

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals

66%

Tekstilshchik 2+ goals

30%

Tekstilshchik 3+ goals

10%

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

59%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

22%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)

58%

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilshchik at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.94 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilshchik attack 1.25 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.09

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.03 + Tekstilshchik defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tekstilshchik scores more

40%

level

31%

Torpedo Moskva scores more

29%

Tekstilshchik at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tekstilshchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Tekstilshchik score first in only 21% of matches
Both teams score in only 20% of Torpedo Moskva’s matches
Tekstilshchik have scored in 7 games running
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Tekstilshchik

LLWWW

Moskva

WWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff