Tekstilshchik 1–3 Torpedo Moskva: Result & Stats

Tekstilshchik

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Torpedo Moskva

10/28/2020

First League · Round 18Stadion Tekstilshchik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Tekstilshchik26%

×Draw27%

Torpedo Moskva47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TekstilshchikExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Moskva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.41

Tekstilshchik

0.99

Torpedo Moskva

1.41

Torpedo Moskva creates 42% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 101 away

0.92

creates per match

1.21

1.60

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Tekstilshchik

0.92

Torpedo Moskva

1.21

allows per match

Tekstilshchik

1.60

Torpedo Moskva

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilshchik ↓

Torpedo Moskva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Tekstilshchik or draw

53%

Tekstilshchik or Torpedo Moskva

73%

Draw or Torpedo Moskva

74%

Winning margin

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+

10%

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals

63%

Tekstilshchik 2+ goals

26%

Tekstilshchik 3+ goals

8%

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

76%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

41%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)

36%

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilshchik at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.60 · 53 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilshchik attack 0.92 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.21 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tekstilshchik scores more

26%

level

27%

Torpedo Moskva scores more

47%

Torpedo Moskva at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff