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Tekstilshchik vs Torpedo Miass — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Tekstilshchik
Tekstilshchik
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Torpedo Miass
Torpedo Miass
4/8/2026Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Spring Season Gold - 7Stadion Tekstilshchik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Tekstilshchik45%
×Draw26%
Torpedo Miass29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilshchik
1.48
Torpedo Miass
1.13

Tekstilshchik creates 31% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 9 away

creates per match

Tekstilshchik
1.41
Torpedo Miass
1.22

allows per match

Tekstilshchik
1.04
Torpedo Miass
1.56

finishing

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par
Torpedo Miass+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilshchik ↓

Torpedo Miass →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tekstilshchik or draw
71%
Tekstilshchik or Torpedo Miass
74%
Draw or Torpedo Miass
55%

Winning margin

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+
22%
Torpedo Miass wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals
77%
Tekstilshchik 2+ goals
43%
Tekstilshchik 3+ goals
19%
Torpedo Miass 1+ goals
68%
Torpedo Miass 2+ goals
31%
Torpedo Miass 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)
61%
Torpedo Miass (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilshchik at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

Torpedo Miass away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilshchik attack 1.41 + Torpedo Miass defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.48

Torpedo Miass attack 1.22 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tekstilshchik scores more
45%
level
26%
Torpedo Miass scores more
29%

Tekstilshchik at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tekstilshchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Gold: Tekstilshchik 2–3 Torpedo Miass

Torpedo Miass beat Tekstilshchik 3-2 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on April 8, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Tekstilshchik in Ivanovo.