Tekstilshchik 1–0 Leningradets: Result & Stats

Tekstilshchik

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Leningradets

M. Bammatgereev 62'

8/25/2025

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 6Stadion Tekstilshchik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Tekstilshchik43%

×Draw27%

Leningradets30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TekstilshchikExpected goals in this matchLeningradets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.06

Tekstilshchik

1.33

Leningradets

1.06

Tekstilshchik creates 25% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 27 away

1.41

creates per match

1.07

1.04

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Tekstilshchik

1.41

Leningradets

1.07

allows per match

Tekstilshchik

1.04

Leningradets

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par

Leningradets+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilshchik ↓

Leningradets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tekstilshchik or draw

70%

Tekstilshchik or Leningradets

73%

Draw or Leningradets

57%

Winning margin

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+

20%

Leningradets wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals

74%

Tekstilshchik 2+ goals

38%

Tekstilshchik 3+ goals

15%

Leningradets 1+ goals

65%

Leningradets 2+ goals

29%

Leningradets 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)

59%

Leningradets (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilshchik at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

Leningradets away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilshchik attack 1.41 + Leningradets defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.33

Leningradets attack 1.07 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tekstilshchik scores more

43%

level

27%

Leningradets scores more

30%

Tekstilshchik at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tekstilshchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

34'

46'

49'

62'

63'

63'

V. Tyurin← M. Polyakov

63'

E. Tatarinov← T. Melekestsev

63'

A. Gurenko← A. Kulishev

63'

V. Arkhipenko← A. Roshchin

73'

D. Dushevskiy← V. Mikushin

73'

I. Shkolik← E. Sukhanov

74'

E. Steshin← M. Bammatgereev

89'

A. Vyskrebentsev← I. Muminov

Tekstilshchik

Leningradets

1

Smirnov

44

Kalugin

41

▼

4

2

94

18

▼

Sukhanov

17

▼

Muminov

91

▼

Roshchin

32

▼

77

51

21

26

5

23

19

3

▼

Polyakov

7

⚽

▼

Bammatger

9

Azarov

69

▼

Anosov

11

▼

Melekests

63'▲F. Fenin←▼D. Anosov

63'▲V. Tyurin←▼M. Polyakov

63'▲E. Tatarinov←▼T. Melekestsev

74'▲E. Steshin←▼M. Bammatgereev

Tekstilshchik substitutes

85Davydov65Yartsev76Steshin91Kalin10Kvekveskiri17Kozlovskiy79Kudryk80Fenin88Tyurin30Ramazanov99Tatarinov

Manager: Aleksey Baga

63'▲A. Gurenko←▼A. Kulishev

63'▲V. Arkhipenko←▼A. Roshchin

73'▲D. Dushevskiy←▼V. Mikushin

73'▲I. Shkolik←▼E. Sukhanov

89'▲A. Vyskrebentsev←▼I. Muminov

Leningradets substitutes

75Budachev19Maksetsov6Vyskrebentsev10Gorelishvili13Dushevskiy8Gorulev55Sukhanov81Gurenko20Shkolik56Sidelnikov82Arkhipenko