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Tekstilshchik vs Krylya Sovetov — First League 2018

Tekstilshchik
Tekstilshchik
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
10/9/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 14Stadion Shinnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Tekstilshchik21%
×Draw25%
Krylya Sovetov53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilshchik
0.90
Krylya Sovetov
1.58

Krylya Sovetov creates 76% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 22 away

creates per match

Tekstilshchik
0.94
Krylya Sovetov
1.55

allows per match

Tekstilshchik
1.61
Krylya Sovetov
0.86

finishing

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par
Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilshchik ↓

Krylya Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tekstilshchik or draw
47%
Tekstilshchik or Krylya Sovetov
75%
Draw or Krylya Sovetov
79%

Winning margin

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+
7%
Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals
59%
Tekstilshchik 2+ goals
23%
Tekstilshchik 3+ goals
6%
Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
79%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
47%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)
29%
Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilshchik at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.61 · 54 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilshchik attack 0.94 + Krylya Sovetov defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.90

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.55 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tekstilshchik scores more
21%
level
25%
Krylya Sovetov scores more
53%

Krylya Sovetov at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tekstilshchik vs Krylya Sovetov

Krylya Sovetov beat Tekstilshchik 3-0 in First League on October 9, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Shinnik in Yaroslavl'.