Tekstilshchik 1–1 Kaluga: Result & Stats

Tekstilshchik

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kaluga

8/4/2024

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 3Stadion Tekstilshchik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tekstilshchik50%

×Draw26%

Kaluga24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TekstilshchikExpected goals in this matchKaluga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.94

Tekstilshchik

1.48

Kaluga

0.94

Tekstilshchik creates 57% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 18 away

1.41

creates per match

0.83

1.04

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Tekstilshchik

1.41

Kaluga

0.83

allows per match

Tekstilshchik

1.04

Kaluga

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par

Kaluga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilshchik ↓

Kaluga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Tekstilshchik or draw

76%

Tekstilshchik or Kaluga

74%

Draw or Kaluga

50%

Winning margin

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+

25%

Kaluga wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals

77%

Tekstilshchik 2+ goals

43%

Tekstilshchik 3+ goals

19%

Kaluga 1+ goals

61%

Kaluga 2+ goals

24%

Kaluga 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)

67%

Kaluga (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilshchik at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

Kaluga away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilshchik attack 1.41 + Kaluga defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.48

Kaluga attack 0.83 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tekstilshchik scores more

50%

level

26%

Kaluga scores more

24%

Tekstilshchik at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tekstilshchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff