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Tekstilshchik vs Fakel Voronezh — First League 2018

Tekstilshchik
Tekstilshchik
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh
4/16/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 33Stadion Tekstilshchik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Tekstilshchik30%
×Draw26%
Fakel Voronezh43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilshchik
1.13
Fakel Voronezh
1.41

Fakel Voronezh creates 25% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 89 away

creates per match

Tekstilshchik
0.94
Fakel Voronezh
1.20

allows per match

Tekstilshchik
1.61
Fakel Voronezh
1.31

finishing

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par
Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilshchik ↓

Fakel Voronezh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tekstilshchik or draw
57%
Tekstilshchik or Fakel Voronezh
74%
Draw or Fakel Voronezh
70%

Winning margin

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+
12%
Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals
68%
Tekstilshchik 2+ goals
31%
Tekstilshchik 3+ goals
11%
Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals
76%
Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
41%
Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)
41%
Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilshchik at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.61 · 54 matches

Fakel Voronezh away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.31 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilshchik attack 0.94 + Fakel Voronezh defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.13

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.20 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tekstilshchik scores more
30%
level
26%
Fakel Voronezh scores more
43%

Fakel Voronezh at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fakel Voronezh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Tekstilshchik 0–5 Fakel Voronezh

Fakel Voronezh beat Tekstilshchik 5-0 in First League on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Tekstilshchik in Ivanovo.