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Tekstilshchik vs Arsenal Tula — First League 2024

Tekstilshchik
Tekstilshchik
Preview
16:00
Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
11/21/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 18Stadion Tekstilshchik
42%
Tekstilshchik
model favours
42%32%27%

Tekstilshchik score first in only 21% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
71%
under 2.5 goals
36%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tekstilshchik42%
×Draw32%
Arsenal Tula27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilshchik
1.08
Arsenal Tula
0.80

Tekstilshchik creates 35% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 37 away

creates per match

Tekstilshchik
1.00
Arsenal Tula
0.92

allows per match

Tekstilshchik
0.67
Arsenal Tula
1.16

finishing

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par
Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilshchik ↓

Arsenal Tula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Tekstilshchik or draw
73%
Tekstilshchik or Arsenal Tula
68%
Draw or Arsenal Tula
58%

Winning margin

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+
17%
Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals
66%
Tekstilshchik 2+ goals
29%
Tekstilshchik 3+ goals
10%
Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
55%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
19%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)
61%
Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilshchik at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Arsenal Tula away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.16 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilshchik attack 1.00 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Arsenal Tula attack 0.92 + Tekstilshchik defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tekstilshchik scores more
42%
level
32%
Arsenal Tula scores more
27%

Tekstilshchik at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tekstilshchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 90% of Arsenal Tula’s matches
  • Tekstilshchik have scored in 7 games running

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Tekstilshchik
LLWWW
Tula
WDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tekstilshchik face Arsenal Tula (First League)

First League returns with Tekstilshchik hosting Arsenal Tula. Match starts November 21, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Tekstilshchik host Arsenal Tula at Stadion Tekstilshchik.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.